By Jim Hagarty
1991
It’s been a great time lately for experts on the Soviet Union.
People such as Ima Sacha Zmardguy, a professor at the University of Toronto who has appeared on TV news programs every night now for weeks.
A month ago, following Mikhail Gorbachev’s visit to the summit meeting of the top seven industrial nations, Mr. Zmardguy analysed the significance of the event and made a prediction.
“Although Mr. Gorbachev didn’t come away from the meeting with a lot of money,” he told a TV interviewer, “he did gain promises of technical and other assistance and I believe you’ll see him strengthened as leader of his country now. He’ll be in power for a very long time.”
Two weeks later, Mr. Gorbachev was put under house arrest and deposed as president. He was replaced by his vice-president.
“It was easy to see this coming,” Mr. Zmardguy told The Journal. “All the signs were there. When Mr. Gorbachev returned from the G-7 meeting empty handed, the writing was on the wall for him. This coup has been in the making for a long time.”
But would the Soviet president ever come back to power? “Never,” proclaimed Mr. Zmardguy. “He is totally finished as a political force in the Soviet Union. He will be kept completely out of the picture now and will soon be forgotten about.”
And Russian president Boris Yeltsin?
“Mr. Yeltsin will be the prime target of the coup now and if he is not killed or exiled, he will certainly be silenced as the voice of reform he has become.”
Will the Soviet people rise up against the coup?
“No,” predicted Mr. Zmardguy. “You have to remember that this is where Communism all began and while the people might have enjoyed their little fling with democracy under Mr. Gorbachev, they can well recall the days before shortages and political turmoil took over their land. I don’t think they’ll be too unhappy about the coup.”
Boris Yeltsin climbs on an army tank and defies the coup leaders to come and get him. Tens of thousands of ordinary people gather around the Russian parliament to defend him.
“Well, Mr. Yeltsin might hold out for a while, but he and his supporters are no match for the KGB and the Red Army both of which are in full support of the coup,” said Mr. Zmardguy.
The army and secret police refuse to attack Mr. Yeltsin. The coup leaders turn and run.
“It was plain for anyone who studies these things that the coup had no chance of succeeding,” said Mr. Zmardguy. “The Soviet people are too much in love with democracy now to ever go back to the old ways.”
Mr. Gorbachev returns to power.
“Now that he is back, Mr. Gorbachev will be a more powerful leader than ever because he will not have to compromise with the hardliners,” predicted Mr. Zmardguy.
Boris Yeltsin begins bossing around Mr. Gorbachev.
“Mr. Gorbachev is plainly just a figurehead president now,” says you know who. “Mr. Yelstin is the hero of the revolution and the real power in the Soviet Union.”
Mr. Yeltsin begins bullying the other republics in the union over mutual borders and there are demonstrations in the Ukraine against him.
“Climbing on a tank and defying the coup showed Mr. Yeltsin is a smart politician but it doesn’t mean he’s a good leader,” says Mr. Zmardguy. “People will begin to turn back to Mr. Gorbachev now because they will see him as the voice of reason.
“To people who understand these things, the path ahead for the Soviet Union is very clear.”
